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Renowned economist Christophe Barraud has predicted that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the upcoming US presidential election on November 5. Mr. Barraud, known as the "world's most accurate economist," bases his forecast on various metrics, including financial market signals, which indicate a Trump-led "GOP clean sweep." According to Mr. Barraud, the Republican Party is likely to take control of the Senate, while the House of Representatives may be a closer call, though still leaning in favor of the Republicans. Additionally, a Trump presidency coupled with Republican control of Congress could result in a temporary economic boost, with projected GDP growth between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025.

The text suggests that if significant tax cuts are not accompanied by other revenue sources under a Trump presidency, the federal deficit could grow. Additionally, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds may rise to 4.5% or even 5% as the administration's policies are implemented. The text also predicts that the US GDP could exceed current forecasts, which estimate 2.6% growth in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025. However, a split Congress could stall many of Trump's domestic policies, leading him to focus more on tariffs, which could slow long-term US and global economic growth. Furthermore, the well-known statistician Nate Silver, who has accurately predicted five US presidential elections, suggested that Trump has a 53.1% chance of winning a second term, though he cautioned against over-relying on intuition.

Based on the presidential election history, the analyst Allan Lichtman anticipates that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious in the upcoming election. Utilizing his "Keys to the White House" framework, which examines 13 factors related to the incumbent party's standing, Lichtman has determined that Harris holds an advantage on eight "keys," while Trump has secured three.